Music Column: MTV VMAs Predictions

(andPOP) - You don't need an introduction to the MTV Video Music Awards, because if you're reading this music column, you're probably a fan of music. And if you're a fan of music, then you've already heard MTV tell you that the VMAs are unpredictable, entertaining and unlike any other award show.

And hey, while I enjoy challenging everything that is said by marketers and the spinners in public relations, I must agree.

With that said, here are my predictions for the 2005 MTV VMAs:

Video of the Year

Nominees: Coldplay, "Speed of Sound"; Kanye West, "Jesus Walks"; Green Day, "Boulevard of Broken Dreams"; Snoop Dogg, featuring Pharrell, "Drop It Like It's Hot"; Gwen Stefani, "Hollaback Girl."

Who should win? Without question, Kanye West. West's video for Jesus Walks has every element of a movie, and while every artist will argue that their video is a mini-movie, West's is one of two who are actually telling the truth. The other one who is worthy of this nomination is Green Day for their cinematic adventure they call "Boulevard of Broken Dreams." But unfortunately they were just outdone by Kanye.

Who will win? Kanye West. The voters aren't going to make the mistake of causing a shock by picking someone else. West has the hype, but backs it up with good music, and in this case, a good music video.

Best Male Video

Nominees: Nominees: 50 Cent, "Candy Shop"; Kanye West, "Jesus Walks"; Beck, "E-Pro"; Usher, "Caught Up"; John Legend, "Ordinary People."

Who should win? Usher's acting performance in Caught Up may earn him more movie rolls, but West again should take this. If the category was judging acting abilities, the award goes to Usher. If the category awarded best song, then John Legend deserves to give an acceptance speech. Beck deserves an award for bizarre creativity, and 50 Cent deserves nothing. But West should win.

Who will win? It will be a big night for Ye.

Best Female Video

Nominees: Amerie, "1 Thing"; Mariah Carey, "We Belong Together"; Gwen Stefani, "Hollaback Girl"; Shakira, featuring Alejandro Sanz, "La Tortura"; Kelly Clarkson, "Since U Been Gone."

Who should win? Kelly Clarkson delivered the best performance in her slightly-above-average music video. It's a weak category, but Clarkson wins by a hair. Where's Missy this year?

Who will win? All the signs are pointing to Gwen Stefani losing, since she may skip the VMAs after not securing a performance spot. But MTV won't hold a grudge and will give her the moonman.

Best Group Video

Nominees: Black Eyed Peas, "Don't Phunk With My Heart"; The Killers, "Mr. Brightside"; Destiny's Child, featuring T.I. & Lil' Wayne, "Soldier"; U2, "Vertigo"; Green Day, "Boulevard of Broken Dreams."

Who should win? It's a battle of Green Day against U2, and the young punk clan deserves this title.

Who will win? Green Day earned a nomination for Best Video, U2 did not. Ergo, MTV will award this to Green Day. A better bet is putting money on the Black Eyed Peas to lose this category.

Best Rap Video

Nominees: Eminem, "Just Lose It"; T.I., "U Don't Know Me"; The Game & 50 Cent, "Hate It Or Love It"; Ying Yang Twins, "Wait (The Whisper Song)"; Ludacris, "Number One Spot."

Who should win? Say what you will about Eminem, but he gave one hell of an entertaining ensemble with his Lose It video. Sure, the song sounded like half a dozen other songs he has released, but this is judging the video.

Who will win? Poor Ludacris. He released his best video to date with Number One Spot, only to be beat by Slim Shady.

Best R&B Video

Nominees: Alicia Keys, "Karma"; Mariah Carey, "We Belong Together"; Ciara, featuring Ludacris, "Oh"; Usher & Alicia Keys, "My Boo"; John Legend, "Ordinary People."

Who should win? There's nothing special about the videos by Keys, Carey, or Ciara. The Usher and Keys video deserves the nomination but Legend's Ordinary People deserves the win for two reasons. First, the director took a bold move by filming the whole thing in black and white, with Legend simply sitting by his piano for much of it. A bold move, and it paid off. Second, they redid the song to add more instruments. The addition will make the hair on your arm stand up.

Who will win? MTV is so happy to have Mariah back, they will give her the award.

Best New Aritst Video

Nominees: Ciara, "1,2 Step"; The Game, "Dreams;" John Legend, "Ordinary People"; The Killers, "Mr. Brightside"; My Chemical Romance, "Helena."


Who should win? This could be the toughest category, with all five artists becoming huge act this year. Who should win though? Give to to JL again.

Who will win? Legend probably won't take another category, so expect The Killers to take the stage for this award.

Best Hip-Hop Video

Nominees: Common, "Go"; Nas, featuring Olu Dara, "Bridging The Gap"; Kanye West, "Jesus Walks"; Snoop Dogg, featuring Pharrell, "Drop It Like It's Hot"; Missy Elliott, featuring Ciara & Fat Man Scoop, "Lose Control."

Who should win? Nas takes hip-hop videos to a new level with his video, though so does Kanye. Since I can't give ties, I'll award this to Nas, simply because his video makes you smile more.

Who will win? It's a Kanye sweep.